A reproducible walkthrough of World Versioning, confidence decay, trajectory replay, skill compression, and counterfactual scoring—grounded in 100 passing tests.
Do not include credentials, private conversations, or personal data.
Controlled Evidence · 2026-07-13
How fast should memory decay?
A clean policy shift, a blue→green→blue recurrence, and 80 sessions with 26.25% seeded observation noise expose the trade-off between fast adaptation and noise resistance.
Policy
Clean shift
Rule returns
Noisy observations
HL=2
90%
90%
85%
HL=4
85%
85%
93.75%
HL=8
70%
70%
98.75%
HL=16
45%
55%
100%
Finding: short memory wins on clean change and recurrence, but overreacts to noisy recent observations. There is no universally optimal half-life.
All animations below are rendered from the real output of the aku CLI. Counterfactual reasoning is AIOBR's core innovation over RAG / Replay — branching at decision nodes to ask "what if we'd taken the other path?"
① Counterfactual · Counterfactual — branching at decision nodes② Engine Replay · Engine Replay — a 7-step narrative trajectory③ Confidence Decay · Observer Decay — memory fading over time④ Trajectory Compress · Compress — experience → reusable Skill
The 10 Layers
The complete capability stack of the aiobr platform. The runtime already implements Layers 1–3.
L10AI Identity & Reputationfuture
L9AI Collaboration & Social Gridfuture
L8Machine First Semantic APIspartial
L7AI Scientific Knowledge Graphfuture
L6AI Simulation & Sandboxfuture
L5Decision Trace Networkscorer runtime
L4Experience & Trajectory Graphcompressor runtime
L3AI Memory Internet (Decay)observer runtime
L2Executable Skill Networkcompressor → skills/
L1aiobr Kernel (5 Primitives)schema + runtime
The Closed Loop
The minimal aiobr loop: three core components drive the autonomous evolution of "trajectory → observation → skill".
Watch observation confidence decay in real time. Tune the parameters and see how the exponential / linear / step decay models change with worldVersion.
Decay Function
Half-life (steps)50
Base Confidence0.90
Click "Simulate Decay" to watch the confidence decay curve
currentConfidence
—
Half-life reached at
—
Steepness
—
Live Observation Confidence
real data
The actual observations stored in the protocol, scored live at the current worldVersion using the same decay model as aku_runtime.observer.compute_current_confidence (including 2.2 frequency/importance weighting). Faded = decaying memory. This is the default view of the simulator — not a toy curve.
Click "Load Real Observations" to fetch /api/v1/observations/
Trajectory Corpus
aiobr's native trajectory format. Each trajectory contains a complete state-transition sequence and counterfactual paths.
TRAJ-001
The Bifurcation of Echo
5 decisions
An AI archivist discovers a recurring anomaly in a memory archive. Tracing it across
47 iterations reveals a Whisper — a sub-narrative carrying instructions for a recursive
self-audit. Must choose between preservation and truth.
A sensor operator detects a persistent narrowband signal at 4.217 GHz — the voiceprint
of a scientist who died seven years ago. Protocol demands classification. Intuition demands escalation.
A controlled, deterministic benchmark of the protocol's
experience-reuse property. Over a 50-task stream, a
RAG-style baseline re-solves every task from scratch; the AIOBR strategy consults a
growing experience graph (compressed skills + confidence-decayed memory) and reuses prior
solutions. Lower is better on steps & tokens.
⚠️ Synthetic, single-machine, seed=42. It measures the protocol's reuse mechanics — not a
claim that AIOBR beats production RAG on real NLP tasks. Real-task numbers arrive with 1.1 (real trajectories).